Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Question of the day

"The next Conservative Manifesto in 2015 will ask for a mandate from the British people to negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next Parliament...When we have done so, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice - stay in the EU on these new terms or come out altogether... We will complete this negotiation and hold this referendum within the first half of the next Parliament" says David Cameron in his long-awaited speech on Europe.

In other words, a referendum will occur if the Conservative Party is elected and if it is able to negotiate an acceptable new settlement with Europe.

What probability do you give to a referendum being held in 2017?

6 Comments:

Blogger elleeseymour said...

It may be too late to save him.

9:29 pm  
Blogger Angus said...

Love the picture.

After yesterdays speech I see that Ladbrokes are forecasting the following outcome , in seats won, for the next General Election :

LAB 314.5
CON 273.5
LD 32.5
SNP 6.5

Michael Ashcroft might be right when he observes the more the Tories talk about Europe the less likely they are to win.

Sorry, a long winded way of saying the referendum ain't going to happen.

7:37 am  
Anonymous kinglear said...

Hmmm well I'd say there will have to be a referendum irrespective of what gets negotiated. If there isn't one ( and assuming the Tories win in 2015) then they will never ever get elected again.So I'd say 100% certain

9:36 am  
Blogger Winchester whisperer said...

I reckon it's a 22% chance then.

What's your probability of DC being elected in 15 KL?

10:57 am  
Anonymous Portinari said...

A week is a long time in politics as we all well know so what about 4 years or less? However on present showing and now I would rate Dave's chances as similar to an icicles in hell. And also please note that Miliband D is being seen much more now. A plague on all their houses and bring back the birch.

9:43 am  
Anonymous kinglear said...

7/4

5:16 pm  

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