Friday, June 28, 2013

Demographics of the day


The Japanese government estimates that the population is shrinking to the extent that today's infrastructure, built to service 128m people, will be used by only 43m in 2110. Unless there is a major change in the birth rate or to immigration laws, the size of the population in 2110 will be the same as it was in 1895, with one in four people being over 65 and under 10% under 15.
Compare that with India whose the workforce is on track to grow by 140m between 2000 and 2020. That increase is the equivalent of the combined workforces of the UK, Germany, France and Italy. Jim O'Neill reckons that with growth of 6% per year, India's economy could be 40 times larger in 2050 than it was in 2000. Nevertheless, India has many problems to address. Corruption is endemic, delaying badly needed improvements to infrastructure. Education needs investment. A large number of children get little or no schooling. It has only one university in the top 500 in the world. According to its share of global GDP, it should have 10. To feed its growing population, it needs to modernise its farming methods. It must also take steps to safeguard the environment (look at the mess China's got into after such a period of strong growth).

4 Comments:

Anonymous kinglear said...

Yeah yeah and the world was supposed to run out of oil and gas 20 years ago and children in the UK in 2012 would never have seen snow....

6:25 pm  
Blogger Angus said...

Maybe Abenomics will do to the birth rate what it's doing for the eceonomy ?

9:55 am  
Blogger Winchester whisperer said...

Well we probably shan't be around in 2110 to test the prediction, KL.

Maybe, Angus!

10:19 am  
Anonymous kinglear said...

and as I'm sure you know, in Japan more adult nappies are sold than baby nappies.....

3:10 pm  

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