Monday, January 20, 2014

Simpson's paradox


One hope for the Murray-Federer quarter-final in Melbourne is that Federer will be a victim of Simpson's paradox ie he'll win more points than Murray but still lose the match. Dr Ryan Rodenberg of Florida State University reckons Federer has only a 14% success rate in winning those matches where he scored fewer points than his opponent.
An example of this paradox in relation to tennis was the longest ever match: John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut in the Wimbledon Men's Singles tournament in 2010. After playing for 11 hours and 5 minutes over three days, Isner won 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 7-6 and 70-68. Over the course of the match, Mahut won 24 points more than his opponent and so one might have expected him to win by a set.

2 Comments:

Anonymous kinglear said...

It's as bad as winning more votes but losing the election.....

6:50 pm  
Blogger Winchester whisperer said...

Hi KL - Simpson didn't work for Murray - too bad! Condorcet is the election paradox when there are more than two parties.

7:11 pm  

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